Scientists develop algorithms to help forecast large quakes

WELLINGTON, Oct. 11 (Xinhua) — Scientists have developed algorithms to help better understand that small earthquakes that increase suddenly in rate and size may signal an incoming large quake, according to a study published on Friday.
There are sequences of earthquakes that occur before most large earthquakes, said the research article published in the Seismological Research Letters.
The earthquake forecasting model EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) could help forecast major upcoming earthquakes within months to decades, depending on their magnitudes, said researchers from New Zealand’s GNS Science and German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ.
EEPAS has performed well in global testing and is an important contributor to public earthquake forecasting in New Zealand and to New Zealand’s National Seismic Hazard Model, the scientists said.
“Our work is critical to advance our understanding of how earthquake activity builds up towards a large earthquake,” said GNS Science Hazard and Risk scientist Annemarie Christophersen, lead author of the paper.
These resources help to make better decisions on where to build and to prioritize strengthening of existing infrastructure to make New Zealand more resilient to large earthquakes, Christophersen said. ■